Free Tool
Subscribe & Save Break-Even Forecaster
Forecast subscription revenue vs one-time purchases. Find the exact break-even month, subscriber LTV, and LTV:CAC ratio with an interactive chart.
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Formula
Break-Even Month = Month where Cumulative Subscription Revenue > One-Time Purchase Profit
What is Subscription Break-Even?
Subscription break-even is the month when the cumulative revenue from a subscriber exceeds the profit from a one-time purchase of the same product. Before this point, you're effectively "investing" in the customer relationship through the subscription discount.
This calculator forecasts revenue curves for both models, accounting for customer acquisition cost (CAC), product cost, monthly churn, and subscription pricing — showing you exactly when subscriptions become more profitable than one-time sales.
Key Subscription Metrics
- LTV (Lifetime Value): Total revenue a subscriber generates over their entire relationship. LTV = ARPU × Average Lifespan
- LTV:CAC Ratio: Should be at least 3:1 for a healthy subscription business. Below 1:1 means you're losing money on every subscriber
- Churn Rate: Percentage of subscribers who cancel each month. Lower churn = higher LTV = faster break-even
- Average Lifespan: 1 ÷ Monthly Churn Rate (e.g., 10% churn = 10-month average lifespan)
How to Reduce Subscription Churn
- Flexible scheduling: Let customers skip, pause, or adjust delivery frequency
- Surprise & delight: Include free samples or exclusive items periodically
- Usage reminders: Send emails when it's time to reorder based on typical consumption
- Cancellation save flow: Offer alternatives (pause, discount, swap) before allowing cancellation
- Community building: Create subscriber-only content, early access, or loyalty rewards